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Ecology of Climate Change:
The Importance of Biotic Interactions
Eric Post

Book Description | Endorsements
Chapter 1 [in PDF format]

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

Preface: Purpose, Perspective, and Scope xiii
The Tension and Facilitation Hypotheses of Biotic Response to Climate Change xiv
Acknowledgments xxi
1. A Brief Overview of Recent Climate Change and Its Ecological Context 1

  • Climate Change versus Global Warming 3
  • Temperature Changes 3
  • Precipitation Changes 9
  • Changes in Snow and Ice Cover 11
  • El Niño-Southern Oscillation 13
  • Paleoclimatic Variation 15
  • Studying the Ecological Effects of Climate Change 16
  • The Study Site at Kangerlussuaq, Greenland 21

2. Pleistocene Warming and Extinctions 24

  • The Pleistocene Environment As Indicated by Its Fauna 24
  • Biogeography and Magnitude of Pleistocene Extinctions and Climate Change 29
  • Case Studies of Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinctions 35
  • Pleistocene Microfaunal Extinctions and Species Redistributions 44
  • Spatial, Temporal, and Taxonomic Heterogeneity in
  • Pleistocene Redistributions: Lessons to Be Learned 46
  • Reconsidering the Megafaunal Extinctions: The Zimov Model 50
  • Relevance to Contemporary Climate Change 52

3. Life History Variation and Phenology 54

  • Geographic and Taxonomic Variation in Phenological Response to Climate Change 54
  • Pattern and Scale in Phenological Dynamics 59
  • Phenology and the Aggregate Life History Response to Climate Change 64
  • Temporal Dependence and a Model of Phenological Dynamics 67
  • The Iwasa-Levin Model and Its Relevance to Climate Change 75
  • Modeling the Contribution of Phenology to Population Dynamics 86
  • Trends and Statistical Considerations 88
  • Empirical Examples Linking Climate, Phenology, and Abundance 91
  • More Complex and Subtle Forms of Phenological Variation 92

4. Population Dynamics and Stability 96

  • Establishing the Framework for Addressing Population Response to Climate Change 97
  • Classic Treatments of Population Stability Viewed Afresh through the Lens of Climate Change 102
  • Incorporation of Climate into Time Series Models 106
  • Simultaneous Thresholds in Population-Intrinsic and Population-Extrinsic Factors 111
  • Population Synchrony and Extinction Risk 119
  • Erosion of Population Cycles 124
  • Global Population Dynamics, Population Diversity, and the Portfolio Effect 128

5. The Niche Concept 132

  • Grinnellian Niches and Climate Change 134
  • Niche Vacancy 138
  • Niche Evolution 139
  • Phenotypic Plasticity and Evolutionary Response to Climate Change 144
  • Niche Conservatism 146
  • Modes of Niche Response to Climate Change 149
  • Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling and Environmental Niche Models 155

6. Community Dynamics and Stability 163

  • Communities Defined through Lateral and Vertical Structuring 164
  • Regional versus Local Diversity and the Community Concept 165
  • Exploitation and Interference Interactions 167
  • Gleasonian and Clementsian Communities 169
  • Non-analogues: The Community Is Dead-Long Live the Community 171
  • The Role of Climate in Mediating Species Interactions versus the Role of Species Interactions in Mediating Community Response to Climate Change 176
  • Phenology and the Ephemeral Nature of Communities 181
  • The Green World Hypothesis, and Phenology As an Index of Resource Availability 186
  • Asynchrony and Trophic Mismatch 187
  • The Cafeteria Analogy of Trophic Mismatch in Time and Space 198
  • Gleasonian Dynamics and Stability in Laterally Structured Communities 200
  • Dynamics and Stability in Vertically Structured Communities 203
  • Development of the Process-Oriented Model for Vertical Communities 205
  • Derivation of the Predator-Level Statistical Model 207
  • Derivation of the Herbivore-Level Statistical Model 208
  • Derivation of the Vegetation-Level Statistical Model 210
  • The Community Matrix and Its Stability Properties 211
  • Trophic Interactions, Dynamic Complexity, and Stability in Vertical Communities 213

7. Biodiversity, Distributions, and Extinction 217

  • Distributional Shifts in Species' Ranges 222
  • Scale and Pattern in Distribution and Abundance 224
  • Biodiversity Changes through Elevational Colonization and Extinction 226
  • Amphibian Extinction and the Climate-Pathogen Hypothesis 230
  • Biodiversity and Stability 233
  • Tropical Deforestation and Climate Change 245
  • Biodiversity, Climate Change, and Human Exploitation 248

8. Ecosystem Function and Dynamics 249

  • Stability, Diversity, and Ecosystem Resilience 254
  • Nutrient, Temperature, and CO2 Manipulations 257
  • Carbon Dynamics and Projected Responses to Global Climate Change 265
  • Tropical Deforestation, Carbon Turnover, and Model Projections of Changes in Carbon Dynamics 276
  • Role of Animals in Ecosystems of Relevance to Climate Change 286
  • Herbivores, Warming, and Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics 289

9. Brief Remarks on Some Especially Important Considerations 297

  • Trends and Variability Revisited 297
  • Community Response to Climate Change: Further Considerations 299
  • The Scale-Invariant Nature of Non-analogues 300
  • Lack of Detection Does Not Always Mean Lack of Response 300
  • A Greater Emphasis on Phenology 301
  • Direct versus Indirect Ecological Responses and the Thief in the Night 302

References 303
Index 359

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File created: 10/23/2013

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