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Optimal Imperfection?
Domestic Uncertainty and Institutions in International Relations
George W. Downs & David M. Rocke

Book Description | Reviews

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

List of Figures ix
List of Tables xi
Preface xiii
1 The Impact of Uncertainty 3
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Realism and Early Rational Choice 9
1.3 The Psychological Tradition 13
1.4 The Institutionalist Tradition 19
1.5 Recent Research 23
1.6 Conclusion 25
2 Game Theory and Uncertainty 27
2.1 Modeling Uncertainty 27
2.2 Games of Incomplete Information 28
2.2.1 Introduction 28
2.2.2 Bayesian Updating 31
2.2.3 Signaling and Reputation 35
2.3 Principal-Agent Models 41
2.4 Trigger Strategies 44
2.5 Conclusion 54
3 Gambling for Resurrection 56
3.1 Introduction 56
3.2 The Theory 59
3.3 The Executive's Dilemma 67
3.4 Gambling for Resurrection 68
3.5 Conclusion 71
3.6 Appendix: Optimal Bayesian Policies 72
4 Optimal Imperfection: GATT and the Uncertainty of Interest Group Demands 76
4.1 Introduction 76
4.2 Modeling Trade Treaties 77
4.3 Treaty Maintenance under Perfect Information 79
4.3.1 Reversionary Strategies 79
4.3.2 Reciprocity and Tit-for-Tat 85
4.4 Interest Group Uncertainty 87
4.5 Asymmetric Preferences 91
4.6 Coping with Nontariff Barriers: U.S. Section 301 93
4.7 Conclusion 99
4.8 Appendixes 101
4.8.1 Assumptions 101
4.8.2 Proof of Proposition 4.1 101
4.8.3 Proof of Proposition 4.2 102
4.8.4 Proof of Proposition 4.3 104
5 Willing but Maybe Not Able: The Impact of Uncertainty about State Capacity 105
5.1 Introduction 105
5.2 An Environmental Model 107
5.2.1 Enforcement Ill
5.2.2 Trigger Strategy 112
5.3 Capacity Uncertainty and Change 114
5.3.1 Capacity Uncertainty 114
5.3.2 Capacity Change 117
5.3.3 Equilibrium Behavior 119
5.4 The Effects of State Capacity Uncertainty 121
5.5 Informational Issue-Linking and a Multivariate Model 123
5.6 Conclusion 125
5.7 Appendixes 127
5.7.1 Normal Mixture Distributions 12
5.7.2 Proof of Proposition 5.1 127
6 Conclusion 130
6.1 Domestic Uncertainty and Institutions 130
6.2 Policy Prescriptions 138
Bibliography 143
Index 155

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File created: 11/11/2014

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