| List of Contributors | |
| Acknowledgments | |
| 1 | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives | 1 |
| 2 | Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes | 39 |
| 3 | Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations | 69 |
| 4 | Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences | 95 |
| 5 | Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis | 119 |
| 6 | Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran | 149 |
| 7 | Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence | 171 |
| 8 | Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution | 187 |
| 9 | Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory | 211 |
| 10 | Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis | 230 |
| 11 | Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in World Politics | 247 |
| 12 | Counterfactuals, Past and Future | 268 |
| Commentary 1: Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the Social and Behavioral Sciences | 291 |
| Commentary 2: Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought Experiments | 296 |
| Commentary 3: Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical Inferences | 301 |
| Commentary 4: Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity | 309 |
| References | 317 |
| Index | 337 |
