| | TABLE OF CONTENTS: List of Figures ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii List of Abbreviations xv 1. Introduction: How In the World Could This Happen? 3 Motivation: To Learn from and Correct Our Mistakes 7 Theoretical Domain: A Normal Accident in a Highly Reliable Organization 10 Data: We Know Exactly "What" Happened 15 Analytical Strategy: Constructing a Causal Map 18 Outline of the Book: An Explanation Across Levels 22 2. The Shootdown: A Thin Description 26 Background: Context Is Important 26 Command and Control: Dense Webs of Crosscutting Guidance 31 The Players: SAVVY, COUGAR, MAD DOG, DUKE, EAGLEs, and TIGERs 40 The Shootdown: A Deadly Dance 52 Multiple Explanations: A Walk Through the Causal Map 65 3. Individual-Level Account: Why Did the F-15 Pilots Misidentify the Black Hawks? 71 Making Sense: Seeing Through the Mind's Eye 75 Ambiguous Stimulus: What Did They Actually See? 76 Expectations: What Did They Expect to See? 80 Desire: What Did They Want to See? 94 Summary: Why They Saw What They Saw 96 4. Group-Level Account: Why Did the AWACS Crew Fail to Intervene? 99 A Weak Team: Overmatched 104 Diffuse Responsibility: When Everyone's Responsible No One Is 119 Summary: The Fallacy of Social Redundancy 135 Organizational-Level Account: Why Wasn't Eagle Flight Integrated into Task Force Operations? 136 Differentiation and Integration: Whatever You Divide, You Have to Put Back Together Again 143 Interdependence: Multiple Failures to Coordinate 152 Summary: How It All Came Apart 177 6. Cross-Levels Account: A Theory of Practical Drift 179 Practical Action: A Core Category 182 Practical Drift: A Theory 186 7. Conclusions: There But by the Grace of God 202 On Theoretical Reminders: Normal Behavior Abnormal Outcome 204 On Practical Drift: Or Is It Sailing? 220 Implications: Let's Build a Library 232 Appendixes 1. Method 237 2. Friendly Fire Applied: Lessons for Your Organization? 239 References 241 Index 251
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