TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface ix
Abbreviations xi
Chapter 1: Fair Ball!: Why Adjustments Are Needed 1
PART ONE: The Methods
Chapter 2: Manager's Game Plan: Method for Identifying the Best Batters 11
Chapter 3: New Ball!: Historical Changes in Offensive Events 28
Chapter 4: Calling It a Career: Examining Player Aging 45
Chapter 5: Talent Search: Measuring the Spread in Player Performance 58
Chapter 6: Home Park Advantage: A Closer Look at Park Effects 69
PART TWO: The Findings
Chapter 7: Swing, Batter!: Adjusting Batting Average 101
Chapter 8: Hit . . . and Run: Adjusting Double and Triple Totals 108
Chapter 9: This One's Outta Here!: Adjusting Home Run Totals 118
Chapter 10: Changing the Score: Adjusting Run and RBI Totals 131
Chapter 11: The Count: Adjusting Walk and Strikeout Totals 149
Chapter 12: Stealing the Show: Adjusting Stolen Base Totals 162
Chapter 13: Putting It All Together: First, a Look at Traditional Measures 168
Chapter 14: Fantasy League: Baseball's Best Batters 177
Chapter 15: The Players Take the Field: Accounting for Player Position 189
Chapter 16: Final Score: Updates for the 2004 Season 204
Chapter 17: Post-Game Report: Conclusions 209
APPENDICES: Statistical Methods
A The Piecewise Linear Regression Method 219
B Moving Average Smoothing of Data 226
C The Multiple Changepoint Regression Procedure 228
D How to Estimate Ballpark Effects 235
E Transformations of Offensive Event Averages 247
F How to Adjust for Doubles and Triples 257
G Predicting Runs and RBIs from the Batting Record 260
Adjustment Data
H Regular Player Event Averages 265
I Event Performance Spreads 266
J Event Park Effects 267
K Home Run Park Effects 284
Player Results L Best Individual Seasons 297
M Best Careers 327
N Adjusted Career Offensive Averages 356
Glossary 380
References 387
Player Index 389
Return to Book Description File created: 4/23/2008 | 
