TABLE OF CONTENTS: List of Figures and Tables ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction 1
CHAPTER 1: Surprise, Anticipation, and Theory 10
The Case for a Decision-Based Theory of Behavior 18
The Case for a Theory of Foreign Policy Change 23
CHAPTER 2: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change 30
Building Blocks 31
A Loss-Aversion Theory of Foreign Policy Change 45
Devils in the Details 51
CHAPTER 3: Useless Islands Disputes 72
Las Islas Malvinas 73
The Northern Territories 95
Crucial Differences 113
CHAPTER 4: American Boys in an Asian War 117
Background 118
Turning Points 129
The Johnson Escalation 134
Nixinger and the Endgame 147
How Do the Hypotheses Fare? 160
CHAPTER 5: Free Trade with the United States: Two Funerals and a Wedding 168
Overview and Background 169
Laurier and the Reciprocity Agreement of 1911 177
King and the Reciprocity Nonagreement of 1948 185
Mulroney and the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, 1988 193
Analysis 206
CHAPTER 6: Conclusion 216
Works Cited 233
Index 265
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