TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface ix
Acknowledgments xi
Chapter 1: Overview of Economic Reforms and Outcomes 1
1.1 Agricultural Reform: 1979-85 4
1.2 Industrial Reform: 1978-93 6
1.3 Transition to a Market Economy: 1994-2003 11
1.4 Foreign Trade and Investment 13
1.5 Financial Sector 16
Chapter 2: The Source of Growth and the Role of Investment 18
2.1 Methodology of Growth Accounting 18
2.2 Measurement of TFPG in China 20
2.3 Production Function Estimates of TFPG in China 23
2.4 Explaining TFPG in China 25
2.5 The Contribution of Investment Reconsidered 28
2.6 Technological Change Reconsidered 32
2.7 Postscript: Investment versus Domestic Demand as a Source of Growth 35
Chapter 3: Saving and the Financing of Investment in China 36
3.1 Investment 38
3.2 Financing Investment 42
3.3 Financial Flows between Sectors 45
3.4 Household Saving 47
3.5 Government Saving and Investment 54
3.6 Foreign Saving 60
3.7 Summary and Conclusions 65
Chapter 4: Financial Sector Repression 70
4.1 Why Repress the Financial System? 71
4.2 How Repressed Is China's Financial System? 74
4.3 Finance and Growth in China 84
4.4 Strategy of Financial Development 90
Chapter 5: Banking Sector Reform 93
5.1 Key Features of the Banking Sector 93
5.2 Problems of the Banking Sector 95
5.3 Measures Taken to Strengthen the Banking Sector 101
Chapter 6: Developments in the Bond Market 115
6.1 The Role of a Bond Market 115
6.2 The Bond Market in China 116
6.3 Government Bonds 118
6.4 Corporate Bond Market 131
6.5 Conclusion 132
Chapter 7: The Rise and Fall of the Stock Market 134
7.1 The Rise 135
7.2 The Fall 140
7.3 Conclusion 148
Chapter 8: Macroeconomic Policy and Performance 150
8.1 Ups and Downs in the Macro Economy 151
8.2 Investment Spending as the Proximate Cause of Macroeconomic Cycles 152
8.3 Anatomy of Macro Cycles in China 155
8.4 Monetary Policy 165
8.5 Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Policy 171
8.6 Fiscal Policy 179
8.7 Conclusion 186
References 189
Index 199
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