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Secular Cycles
Peter Turchin & Sergey A. Nefedov

Book Description | Reviews
Chapter 1 [in PDF format]

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

Table of Units and Currencies ix

Chapter 1: Introduction: The Theoretical Background 1
1.1 Development of Ideas about Demographic Cycles 1
1.2 A Synthetic Theory of Secular Cycles 6
1.3 Variations and Extensions 21
1.4 Empirical Approaches 29

Chapter 2: Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150-1485) 35
2.1 Overview of the Cycle 35
2.2 The Expansion Phase (1150-1260) 47
2.3 Stagflation (1260-1315) 49
2.4 Crisis (1315-1400) 58
2.5 Depression (1400-1485) 69
2.6 Conclusion 77

Chapter 3: Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485-1730) 81
3.1 Overview of the Cycle 81
3.2 Expansion (1485-1580) 87
3.3 Stagflation (1580-1640) 91
3.4 Crisis (1640-60) 97
3.5 Depression (1660-1730) 101
3.6 Conclusion 107
Appendix to Chapter 3 108

Chapter 4: Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150-1450) 111
4.1 Overview of the Cycle 111
4.2 Expansion (1150-1250) 115
4.3 Stagflation (1250-1315) 117
4.4 Crisis (1315-65) 121
4.5 Depression (1365-1450) 129
4.6 Conclusion: "A Near Perfect Multi-secular Cycle" 141

Chapter 5: Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450-1660) 143
5.1 Overview 143
5.2 Expansion (1450-1520) 147
5.3 Stagflation (1520-70) 149
5.4 Crisis (1570-1600) 153
5.5 A Case Study: The Norman Nobility 156
5.6 Depression (1600-1660) 169
5.7 Conclusion 174

Chapter 6: Rome: The Republican Cycle (350-30 BCE) 176
6.1 Overview of the Cycle 176
6.2 An Unusually Long Expansion (350-180 BCE) 185
6.3 Stagflation (180-130 BCE) 189
6.4 The Late Republican Crisis (130-30 BCE) 201
6.5 The End of the Disintegrative Trend 205
6.6 Conclusion 208

Chapter 7: Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE-285 CE) 211
7.1 Overview of the Cycle 211
7.2 Expansion (27 BCE-96 CE) 224
7.3 Stagflation (96-165 CE) 229
7.4 Crisis (165-97 CE) 233
7.5 Depression (197-285 CE) 236
7.6 Conclusion 238

Chapter 8: Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460-1620) 240
8.1 The Fifteenth-Century Crisis 240
8.2 Expansion (1460-1530) 241
8.3 Stagflation (1530-65) 244
8.4 Crisis (1565-1615) 252
8.5 Conclusion 258

Chapter 9: Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620-1922) 261
9.1 Expansion (1620-1800) 261
9.2 Stagflation (1800-1905) 274
9.3 Crisis (1905-22) 287
9.4 Conclusion 299

Chapter 10: General Conclusions 303
10.1 Population Numbers 303
10.2 Elite Dynamics 304
10.3 The State 306
10.4 Sociopolitical Instability 307
10.5 Are There General Laws of Historical Dynamics? 311

Acknowledgments 315
References Cited 317
Index 341

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File created: 10/23/2013

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