TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
List of Abbreviations xv
Part I. Baseball 1
Chapter 1: Baseball's Pythagorean Theorem 3
Chapter 2: Who Had a Better Year, Nomar Garciaparra or Ichiro Suzuki? 11
The Runs- Created Approach
Chapter 3: Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights 17
Chapter 4: Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation 30
Chapter 5: Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future Pitcher Performance 41
Chapter 6: Baseball Decision- Making 52
Chapter 7: Evaluating Fielders 64
Sabermetrics' Last Frontier
Chapter 8: Player Win Averages 71
Chapter 9: The Value of Replacement Players 79
Evaluating Trades and Fair Salary
Chapter 10: Park Factors 84
Chapter 11: Streakiness in Sports 87
Chapter 12: The Platoon Effect 102
Chapter 13: Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter? 106
Chapter 14: Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness 110
Chapter 15: Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today? 113
Chapter 16: Was Joe DiMaggio's 56- Game Hitting Streak the Greatest Sports Record of All Time? 116
Chapter 17: Major League Equivalents 123
Part II. Football 125
Chapter 18: What Makes NFL Teams Win? 127
Chapter 19: Who's Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? 132
Chapter 20: Football States and Values 138
Chapter 21: Football Decision- Making 101 143
Chapter 22: A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl 151
Champion Colts
Chapter 23: If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don't 158
Teams Always Pass?
Chapter 24: Should We Go for a One- Point or Two- Point Conversion? 165
Chapter 25: To Give Up the Ball Is Better Than to Receive 172
The Case of College Football Overtime
Chapter 26: Why Is the NFL's Overtime System Fatally Flawed? 175
Chapter 27: How Valuable Are High Draft Picks in the NFL? 180
Part III. Basketball 185
Chapter 28: Basketball Statistics 101 187
The Four- Factor Model
Chapter 29: Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players 195
Chapter 30: Adjusted_/_Player Ratings 202
Chapter 31: NBA Lineup Analysis 224
Chapter 32: Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups 228
Chapter 33: NBA Players' Salaries and the Draft 233
Chapter 34: Are NBA Officials Prejudiced? 237
Chapter 35: Are College Basketball Games Fixed? 242
Chapter 36: Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games? 244
Chapter 37: End- Game Basketball Strategy 248
Part IV. Playing with Money, and Other Topics for Serious Sports Fans 253
Chapter 38: Sports Gambling 101 255
Chapter 39: Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker 262
Chapter 40: Rating Sports Teams 266
Chapter 41: Which League Has Greater Parity, The NFL or the NBA? 283
Chapter 42: The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) 287
Chapter 43: From Point Ratings to Probabilities 290
Chapter 44: Optimal Money Management 298
The Kelly Growth Criteria
Chapter 45: Ranking Great Sports Collapses 303
Chapter 46: Can Money Buy Success? 311
Chapter 47: Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs? 319
Chapter 48: Does Fatigue Make Cowards of Us All? 321
The Case of NBA Back- to- Back Games and NFL Bye Weeks
Chapter 49: Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved? 324
Chapter 50: Comparing Players from Different Eras 331
Chapter 51: Conclusions 335
Index of Databases 341
Annotated Bibliography 343
Index 353
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